Think in PROBABILITIES instead of possibilities

A view on ... Efficient Market Hypothesis

"... Where these theories [about the “efficient-market hypothesis” (EMH) and “modern portfolio theory” (MPT)] go wrong in their practical application is that they both assume there are only rational participants in the markets. While the crowd may be right most of the time, there are clearly times when the crowd is not rational (note the preponderance of manias throughout the history of finance). In fact, the proprietors of these models have acknowledged this Achilles’ heel themselves." (from:, Feb. 11 2015)